E-Publishing: Pay Dirt or Fool's Gold?

I was discussing e-publishing with some of my fellow MFA students this past week, and one of them posed the question: “How big is the e-pub gold mine? How comparable are sales for e-pub and traditional publishing?”

I’m pretty sure that attempts to answer this question have ignited small wars recently. Since I don’t want to clog up my class’s message boards addressing the issue, I figured that I would offer my two cents here. I’m going to try to limit things to my own personal experience; however, since I have only been selling my e-book since December, I don’t have a long track record to draw upon. So please forgive me if I have to name drop in this post.

To answer the question “how big is the e-pub gold mine?” we have to first draw a major distinction between “potential” and “probability.” Right now, the potential for e-pub sales is huge. There are millions of e-reader and e-reading capable devices on the market, and more are being sold every day. Self-pubbed e-books tend to be much cheaper than those offered by traditional publishers (usually $0.99 to $2.99 on the self-pubbed side, and $9.99 to $14.99 for a new traditionally published e-book). So that’s a big advantage in favor of writers self-publishing: cheaper books usually mean more sales (as long as the books are well-written and formatted). The market is there, and all indications are that it will be there for some time.

So what’s the probability that a self-pubbed author of an e-book will be able to take advantage of this marketplace? This is where things get a little dicey. Distribution is no longer an issue. Self-pubbed authors have access to the same stores as those pubbed by New York (there are some small presses who focus on the e-market, and some of them offer their books through their own websites. But when it comes to the major platforms, it’s a pretty even playing field). The challenge for self-pubbers is the same it’s always been for any new or independent writer: exposure. To make sales, people have to find your book. Ad campaigns tend to be expensive, and there is no guarantee that someone will buy your book just because they see a banner for it. Word of mouth still seems to be the most effective means of advertising. Showing up on Amazon’s and Barnes and Noble’s “top sellers” lists seems to help boost sales. Being involved in various forums and other facets of the online community is also probably useful. You’ll also read about a lot of success stories in those online communities, which can be very convincing that electronic self-publishing is the way to go.

So what’s the reality? There seem to be a ton of people making good money in this business. Is it really possible and even probable to join their ranks? Well, it depends, mostly on what your definition of “successful” is. And here’s where I share my personal and perhaps sobering experience.

You see, I’m not a successful self-published author by most standards. Currently, my novel ranks in the 100,000 range on Amazon, and 800,000 on Nook (disclaimer: this doesn’t include Smashwords sales, because they only release their figures and payments quarterly, so I haven’t received an accurate report from them yet. I’ve had 24 downloads of my book sample in just over a month through them, but I don’t think any of them turned into purchases). I’ll be blunt: those are shitty numbers. I’m averaging 5 sales a month. Again, shitty numbers. That means I’m earning (according to my royalty statements) a whopping $10.30 every thirty days or so. Definitely won’t be quitting my day job for that!

Here’s the rub: I’m pretty much an unknown author. I’ve also only been at this for three months now. Most authors I’ve read about who have been successful have taken several months to a year to find their audience. I only have one book for sale. Again, most successful authors have more (usually at least three). I also have done little promotion beyond Facebook announcements and a couple of guest blog posts. I’m still figuring out the finer points of e-formatting. So there is hope for me yet. And right now, I’m doing better than I was in the print market.

It would be eminently helpful if I had a novel published in print so that I could compare the two. Unfortunately, that dream never came to pass. And I don’t want to speculate on what I might or might not be earning if I kept trying for a print deal. Once you start dealing with pretend numbers, I think your whole argument falls apart. So I can only compare my online experience to the two short stories I had published in anthologies released by small presses. Again, this is an imperfect comparison, but it’s the only experience I have to go on.

So my first short story sold in 2005, and was printed in 2006. I received about $150 as an advance. It never sold enough to earn any royalties, but I did make about $250 profit off of copies I had purchased at my author’s discount, and then sold at list price during a book signing. So all told, in the five calendar years of 2006 - 2010, I earned $400 from that story. Five calendar years is 60 months, so doing the math, I’ve earned $6.67 a month off of that story. And that’s it. That number will only decline as the months go on, unless new income comes in. Now, I knew this was a likely scenario, so maybe it’s not quite fair to break it down this way. I was happy to get $150 for a short story, and even happier when people actually bought copies at the signing. So it’s a $400 story on the whole, and unless I ask for my rights back it will probably stay there.

My second story sold in 2006. I was supposed to earn almost $400 as an advance. But the publisher fell on some hard times, and I still haven’t seen a cent in payment. I haven’t gone to court over it, because the fees and time just aren’t worth the hassle. It remains to be seen whether or not I’ll demand my rights back. For now, I’ve chalked this up as an expensive learning experience, and it’s also been motivation for striking out on my own. I don’t want to be burned again, intentionally or unintentionally.

As for my novel that is currently online, it’s averaging around ten bucks a month. So right now it’s a $30 story (since it’s been selling for three months). I’m going to risk slipping a bit into “imaginary” mode, but if those numbers hold, in a five year period it will earn $600. Factoring in expenses for cover art and the ISBN I purchased, and it will take seven years to hit that number, roughly. Again, this is not major money, but it’s better than I’ve done before, and it certainly beats what it was earning sitting on my hard drive.

Now, the question begs to be asked: is it worth it? It is for me. It might not be for you. I’m not viewing this through rose-colored lenses, either. First, I do plan on releasing more material electronically, to see if the trend of “more books = more sales” holds true for me. Second, I will probably be playing with price points and incentives, which will throw off the math above, but might make it more interesting. Finally, at least I can say that - even if I fail - I’m giving it my best shot. I don’t like failing. I can’t imagine many people who do. But at least I can learn something from this process, whatever the outcome. And at least I’m not failing because someone else made bad decisions that turned into me not getting paid.

I’ll probably revisit this topic again at the end of the year, when “Days of Reckoning” has been on sale for a full year. At that point, I’ll have more of a track record to go on. I also should have more material available. I don’t know if I’ll have struck paydirt. But at least I can say that I tried.

Special thanks to Jen Brooks, a talented writer and colleague from Seton Hill University, for posing the original question.